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Howard Marks
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The Library
10 letters
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2025
Memo
The Calculus of Value
Marks explores the mathematical relationship between interest rates, cash flows, and intrinsic value. He argues that in a higher-rate environment, the margin of safety becomes the investor's most critical tool.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2024
Memo
Easy Money
Reviews the consequences of the long period of ultra-low interest rates, noting how it distorted asset prices and encouraged reckless financial behavior.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2024
Memo
Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics?
Discusses the dangers of ignoring fundamental economic principles, particularly regarding government intervention and the belief that cycles can be permanently suppressed.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2023
Memo
Further Thoughts on Sea Change
Expands on the shift from a low-return, low-rate environment to one where credit and fixed income offer attractive, equity-like returns without equity-like risk.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2023
Memo
Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank
Marks analyzes the Silicon Valley Bank collapse as a classic bank run exacerbated by digital speed and interest rate risk. He emphasizes that maturity transformation remains inherently fragile when trust evaporates and liquidity dries up.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2021
Memo
The Winds of Change
Marks examines the transition from a forty-year period of declining interest rates to a more volatile era. He suggests that the tailwinds that aided investors for decades are turning into headwinds.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2020
Memo
Coming into Focus
Discusses the low-interest-rate environment and its impact on expected returns, arguing that investors must accept lower returns or take more risk to meet targets.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2019
Memo
Mysterious
This memo explores the 'mysterious' persistence of low interest rates and low inflation, questioning how these anomalies distort asset prices and what happens when traditional economic relationships fail to hold.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
2016
Memo
Economic Reality
Marks argues that central bank interventions cannot create long-term prosperity and that investors must accept a reality of lower growth and lower returns in a heavily manipulated economic environment.
Howard Marks
Oaktree Capital
1994
Memo
Risk in Today's Markets – Revisited
Following up on his previous risk memo, Marks examines how rising interest rates and changing sentiment affect market stability. He warns that risk is often highest when it is perceived to be lowest.